布莱尔：以对话和合作帮助中国拥抱未来

trypsin

原载地址：
http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20080827/opn152521.asp?source=email

北京奥运会向世人奉献了一场壮观的视听盛宴。但我最深刻的印象来自奥运前夕非正式拜访一家中国新创互联网公司并与中国一些年轻创业者交谈时获得的感受。

这些人无论男女都很聪明、敏锐、直率，不畏于表达自己对中国及其未来的看法。最重要的是，他们有一种自信、一种乐观主义。你看不到愤世嫉俗，能感受到的是一种站起来勇往直前的精神。这不禁让我想起黄金时期的美国和其他处于上升期的国家。

这些人不是生活在恐惧中，相反，他们充满希望地展望未来。尽管中国还有成百上千万人生活在贫困中，尽管还有各种各样的问题──政治的、社会的、经济的──需要解决，但奥运期间中国展现出了这种精神，而这种精神将决定中国的未来。

在我担任英国领导人的10年间，我目睹了中国作为一个大国加速崛起的过程。我曾发表过有关中国的讲话。那时，我对它有些理性的认识，但还没有情感上的切身感受，因此在政治上没有充分地理解中国。

卸任后不久，我便四次访问中国，近期还会再去。有人问，本届奥运会将让中国在历史上留下怎样的形像？答案是，它标志着一个新的时代──永远不会倒退的开放的中国。它还意味着，对中国的无知和恐惧将渐渐消失，而现代化的中国正成为日益明显的事实。

实力和影响力正在东移。印度迟早也将进入这一行列。一些人将这种崛起视为一种威胁，我认为这是一个巨大的机会。但我们必须运用丰富的想像力，并消除以往所有傲慢无知的残迹。

这次奥运会的志愿者团队热情、友好、乐于助人。整个城市给人的感觉与我20年前第一次访问这里时相比完全是两个世界。人们对自己的国家及其取得的进步充满了自豪。

每一个有判断力的中国人──包括中国领导人──都不否认，中国还有R_Q问题以及政治和宗教自由方面的问题需要解决。但每一个有判断力的人，包括最亲西方的中国人，都不会怀疑中国已经朝着好的方面发生了巨大变化。中国正在前进的道路上迅速进步。但它非常清楚这条路并未走完。观察家们务必要看到中国依然存在的差距，但他们也应该认可中国已经取得的成就。

中国领导人一直忙于处理内部发展问题，这一点可以理解。北京和上海不再能代表整个中国的全貌，就像纽约和华盛顿不代表美国一样。理解中国内部面临的挑战是理解中国及其政治和思想的基础。我们欧洲大约有5%的人从事农业，在中国这个比例高达60%。未来数年中国将争取让数亿农村人口向城市过渡。当然，印度也将进行同样的尝试。这种过渡将在经济、环境和政治等方面带来巨大的挑战和机会。

对中国来说，经济和社会转型必须在政治稳定的前提下实现。这么做也完全符合我们的利益。一个中国的原则不是放任的民族主义的体现。它关乎中国能否在现代化的同时保持和平稳定、团结一致。正因为如此，西藏对中国来说并不单纯是一个宗教问题，而是一个深刻的政治问题，毕竟，西藏虽然人口稀少，但其面积占到了整个中国的四分之一左右。

因此，我们必须继续就这个很多人关心的问题与中国对话，但在这个过程中，我们应该对中国对这个问题的观点有一定的了解。

这意味着西方需要加强与中国的合作伙伴关系，而且是在更深水平上的，不仅是经济合作，还要有政治和文化上的沟通。现实是，在21世纪，任何一件事情如果没有中国的充分参与都难以做好。我们今天面临的挑战是全球性的。而中国现在是一支重要的全球性力量。因此，不论是气候变化、非洲事务、全球贸易还是数不清的安全方面的问题，我们都需要中国发挥建设性的作用；我们需要它在与我们的伙伴关系中运用实力。不过，这并不意味着我们不应继续提出有关R_Q、宗教自由和M_Z改革方面的问题，就像欧洲和美国领导人最近几周所作的那样。

人们有可能夸大中国的崛起。比如，欧洲经济仍是全球经济的重要一支，其整体实力超过了中国和印度相加的实力，但就像奥运会和奖牌榜一样，这种力量对比不会一成不变。现在正是变化的历史时刻。快速向前推10年，每个人都会知道结果。

几个世纪以来，超级大国都在西方，其间包括大英帝国在内的欧洲各国，到了二十世纪则是美国。现在，我们将不得不考虑到一个与远东分享权力的世界。我想知道我们是否明白它意味着什么，毕竟我们的文化（并不仅仅是政治、经济）占据统治地位已经有很长时间了。这将是一次陌生、甚至令人紧张的经历。就我个人而言，我认为它将带来不可思议的价值。新的体验、新的思考方式将释放人们的创造能量。但不管怎样，这都是一个我们不得不面对的事实。对下届美国总统来说，这将是、也应该是其议事日程上的头等大事。在布什总统领导下中美关系发展良好，这也为继任者搭建了一个坚实的平台。

奥林匹克是目前世界上最大规模的体育活动，而且，由于人们对体育运动的喜爱，它也是给人们带来切实影响的事件之一。这届运动会让人们得以一窥现代中国的真实面貌，它的效果是多少政治演讲都不可比拟的。

2012 年的伦敦奥运会让英国获得了一个探究这些变化、向东方展示现代西方社会的绝好机会。有一点可以肯定：举办奥运会对任何一个国家都是难得的机遇。北京奥运会之后，我的想法是我们不必试图仿效这届奥运会开幕式的壮观场面。它已经登峰造极，无人能超越了。因此，我们应该另辟蹊径，在宣扬奥林匹克理想和精神上着力。我们应该有我们的特色，就像他们有他们的特色一样。同时，我们应该相互学习、相互尊重。这是二十一世纪人们应有的风范。

trypsin

TONY BLAIR

The Beijing Olympic Games were a powerful spectacle, stunning in sight and sound. But the moment that made the biggest impression on me came during an informal visit just before the Games to one of the new Chinese Internet companies, and in conversation with some of the younger Chinese entrepreneurs.

These people, men and women, were smart, sharp, forthright, unafraid to express their views about China and its future. Above all, there was a confidence, an optimism, a lack of the cynical, and a presence of the spirit of get up and go, that reminded me greatly of the U.S. at its best and any country on its way forward.

These people weren't living in fear, but looking forward in hope. And for all the millions still in poverty in China, for all the sweep of issues -- political, social and economic -- still to be addressed, that was the spirit of China during this festival of sport, and that is the spirit that will define its future.

During my 10 years as British leader, I could see the accelerating pace of China's continued emergence as a major power. I gave speeches about China, I understood it analytically. But I did not feel it emotionally and therefore did not fully understand it politically.

Since leaving office I have visited four times and will shortly return again. People ask what is the legacy of these Olympics for China? It is that they mark a new epoch -- an opening up of China that can never be reversed. It also means that ignorance and fear of China will steadily decline as the reality of modern China becomes more apparent.

Power and influence is shifting to the East. In time will come India, too. Some see all this as a threat. I see it as an enormous opportunity. But we have to exercise a lot of imagination and eliminate any vestiges of historic arrogance.

The volunteer force that staged the Games was interested, friendly and helpful. The whole feel of the city was a world away from the China I remember on my first visit 20 years ago. And the people are proud, really and honestly proud, of their country and its progress.

No sensible Chinese person -- including the country's leadership -- doubts there remain issues of human rights and political and religious freedom to be resolved. But neither do the sensible people -- including the most Western-orientated Chinese -- doubt the huge change, for the better, there has been. China is on a journey. It is moving forward quickly. But it knows perfectly well the journey is not complete. Observers should illuminate the distance to go, by all means, but recognize the distance traveled.

The Chinese leadership is understandably preoccupied with internal development. Beijing and Shanghai no more paint for you the complete picture of China than New York and Washington do of the U.S. Understanding the internal challenge is fundamental to understanding China, its politics and its psyche. We in Europe have roughly 5% of our population employed in agriculture. China has almost 60%. Over the coming years it will seek to move hundreds of millions of its people from a rural to an urban economy. Of course India will seek to do the same, and the scale of this transformation will create huge challenges and opportunities in the economy, the environment and politically.

For China, this economic and social transformation has to come with political stability. It is in all our interests that it does. The policy of One China is not a piece of indulgent nationalism. It is an existential issue if China is to hold together in a peaceful and stable manner as it modernizes. This is why Tibet is not simply a religious issue for China but a profoundly political one -- Tibet being roughly a quarter of China's land mass albeit with a small population.

********

So we should continue to engage in a dialogue over the issues that rightly concern people, but we should conduct it with at least some sensitivity to the way China sees them.

This means that the West needs a strong partnership with China, one that goes deep, not just economically but politically and culturally. The truth is that nothing in the 21st century will work well without China's full engagement. The challenges we face today are global. China is now a major global player. So whether the issue is climate change, Africa, world trade or the myriad of security questions, we need China to be constructive; we need it to be using its power in partnership with us. None of this means we shouldn't continue to raise the issues of human rights, religious freedoms and democratic reforms as European and American leaders have done in recent weeks.

It is possible to hyperbolize about the rise of China. For example, Europe's economies are still major and combined outreach those of China and India combined. But, as the Olympics and its medal tables show, it is not going to stay that way. This is a historic moment of change. Fast forward 10 years and everyone will know it.

For centuries, the power has resided in the West, with various European powers including the British Empire and then, in the 20th century, the U.S. Now we will have to come to terms with a world in which the power is shared with the Far East. I wonder if we quite understand what that means, we whose culture (not just our politics and economies) has dominated for so long. It will be a rather strange, possibly unnerving experience. Personally, I think it will be incredibly enriching. New experiences; new ways of thinking liberate creative energy. But in any event, it will be a fact we have to come to terms with. For the next U.S. president, this will be or should be at the very top of the agenda, and as a result of the strength of the Sino-U.S. relationship under President Bush, there is a sound platform to build upon.

The Olympics is now the biggest sporting event in the world, and because of the popularity of sport it is therefore one of the events that makes a genuine impact on real people. These Games have given people a glimpse of modern China in a way that no amount of political speeches could do.

London 2012 gives Britain a tremendous chance to explore some of these changes and explain to the East what the modern West is about. One thing is for certain: Hosting the Olympics is now a fantastic opportunity for any nation. My thoughts after the Beijing Games are that we shouldn't try to emulate the wonder of the opening ceremony. It was the spectacular to end all spectaculars and probably can never be bettered. We should instead do something different, drawing maybe on the ideals and spirit of the Olympic movement. We should do it our way, like they did it theirs. And we should learn from and respect each other. That is the way of the 21st century.

killbill

涅， 只有我们强大了， 鬼佬才会来对话与合作

trypsin

强大才是王道～